What Current Booking Trends Mean for Your Mountain West Ski Trip

The snow hangover is real

Winter bookings across the Mountain West are running 8.3% behind last year, and that is the best news a flexible skier has heard in years.

After a warm, thin 2025-26 season that sent Colorado and Utah resorts into early closures, travelers are holding their wallets until they see snow. The industry has a name for this: the “snow hangover.” Inntopia’s Tom Foley, who tracks lodging across 17 Western resort communities, says this winter is pacing behind not only last year but behind the years that followed the five worst snow seasons since 2005.

Foley notes that these early numbers mostly reflect the destination guest. That’s the traveler who comes from farther away, stays longer and spends the most, so their caution about snow is understandable.

For lodging owners, that is a worry. For you, planning a trip to Vail, Beaver Creek, Park City or Jackson, it is leverage.

What the data says

As of September 30, rooms booked for November through March were down 8.3% year over year, with every month behind and spring the softest of all. The figures come from Inntopia’s DestiMetrics Market Briefing, released October 15 (SAM Magazine).

Rates are mostly holding. Average daily rates for the five months are up 1.4%, with December the only month priced lower than last year. Even so, lodging properties are looking at a 7% drop in winter revenue if nothing changes.

How unusual is that? Foley went back through Inntopia’s data from 2005-06 to 2024-25 and pulled the five worst and five best snow seasons. He then checked where the following winter’s bookings stood on September 30.

Even after the worst winters, the next season has typically started slightly ahead. This year is a clear outlier, though Foley calls the gap big but not insurmountable.

The contrast with summer is sharp. September occupancy rose 6.6% and rates jumped 9.6%. Travelers clearly still want the mountains; they are choosing when and how to pay for them.

Why everyone is waiting

A bad memory, a tighter budget and an uneven forecast are keeping skiers on the sidelines.

Last winter still stings. The 2025-26 season was one of the worst on record in the West. Vail Resorts reported Rockies visits down 25%, and the National Ski Areas Association counted Rocky Mountain skier visits down more than 24% (Denver Gazette). People who paid for a trip and got thin cover are not rushing to commit again.

Pass buyers are hedging. Epic Pass unit sales for 2026-27 were down about 12% through September 18, with sales dollars down about 6% (Vail Resorts fiscal 2026 results). Vail’s own CFO said the company expects to win back some of that through lift-ticket sales instead. In plain terms, more skiers plan to buy day by day once they see the snow.

Money is tighter. Foley points to last month’s interest-rate increase, which makes credit-card-funded travel more expensive. Since May, travelers have favored cheaper months and shortened stays during pricier ones.

Getting there costs more, too. The latest inflation report put the national rate at 3.7%, with consumer prices up 0.6% in a single month. Foley highlights that gasoline is up 34% and airfares are up 22% from last year. Wages have trailed inflation for about six months, and consumer confidence is at its lowest since April 2014.

Mountain visitors tend to be more affluent than average, but they are not immune. Foley sees shorter stays, more midweek visits and more bookings in cheaper months across every price tier, economy to luxury, since this spring.

The forecast is the wild card. Forecasters are watching a potential “Super El Niño,” but it is not forecast as a win for everyone. The Southern Rockies are expected to run cold and snowy, while the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest are expected to be warmer with below-average snow. As Foley puts it, it’s weather, so never bank on it.

What it means for your trip

This is a buyer’s market today, but it can flip in a single storm cycle. The smartest plan locks in the hard-to-find pieces now and keeps everything else flexible.

• Book your must-have dates now, on flexible terms. Christmas–New Year’s and Presidents’ Day still fill when the snow shows up. The best homes and slopeside units go first. Reserve now with a generous cancellation policy, and you keep your choice of property without betting on the weather.

• Ask for more than a lower rate. Foley expects price pressure to intensify and sees an opening for lodging operators to lean on value-add offers. That can mean a free night, waived fees, ski valet, or an upgrade. Those perks often outlast a headline discount.

• Look hard at December, March and midweek. December is the only month with lower rates than last year, and March bookings are down 17.1%. A Sunday-to-Thursday stay usually costs less than a weekend-anchored one, and it’s where much of the market is already shifting.

• Lock in airfare early. With airfares up 22% year over year, the flight may be the part of your budget most likely to climb. Lodging can stay flexible; seats on peak-week flights rarely get cheaper.

• Factor the forecast into where you go. If you’re choosing between regions, the El Niño outlook currently favors the Southern Rockies over the Northern Rockies. Treat that as a tiebreaker, not a guarantee.

• Don’t panic-buy a pass you won’t use. Vail is steering skiers toward lift tickets bought at least 30 days ahead, plus the Epic Friend Ticket, which gives 50% off when skiing with a passholder. If you ski five days or fewer, compare advance tickets against a pass before the final pass deadline.

• Watch the snow, but have a trigger. Last-minute bookings can transform a month. In one past season, March occupancy on the books jumped from 49.7% to 62.3% in just four weeks (Inntopia). If a strong early-season storm cycle hits, waiting gets expensive fast.

• Protect the investment. Look for travel insurance that covers trip interruption, and read the fine print on what it says about weather and resort closures.

The bottom line

The skiers who win this winter will be the ones who plan early and stay flexible. Booking pace is soft, rates are steady, and operators are ready to deal. Nobody controls the weather, but you can control your terms.

If you’re weighing a trip to the Vail Valley or anywhere else in the Mountain West, hit reply. I’m happy to compare properties, ask the questions about cancellation terms and perks, and help you lock in the right place before the first big storm changes the math.